Global Climate Change and Decision Theory
A friend of mine recently posted a link into his Facebook feed, of this video:
(
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zORv8wwiadQ)
It is a rather intelligent person, presenting an argument about Global Climate Change, using a dressed up form of
Pascal's Wager, which is a form of
Decision Theory.
I found it quite interesting. I mean, it *is* simplified, but, as he points out in this video...
(
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGpYI9LcJkA)
...you can't exactly go into complexities in a YouTube video, A) because he wanted to keep it to 9 and a half minutes, and B) because none of us are certified climate experts. His first video was critiqued, apparently not very constructively, quite a bit.
Then, in a third video:
(
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBy8dEtiCc4)
...well, he quite humorously rebuts as much as he can. He makes a good argument, (I won't detail it, because the videos are worth the watch), though I'm not sure I agree with his conclusion. I'm personally more partial to evidence that supports solar output cycles, natural global climate fluctuation, etc. And you could argue that his videos are
all about not knowing exactly what will happen, but those values are also important for assigning values to the grid items, and ultimately, wagering on possible courses of action.
But, since I am not educated in: weather patterns, global economic and sociological trends, solar weather patterns - I can't make my own personal decision on this issue. And as much as I hate for freedoms to be subverted, I whole-heartedly believe that if the government, (as in, us as a people, as a whole), can come to a positive conclusion that we can curtail negative global climate change, I am in favor of structuring industry and municipal regulations to make it happen.
I know a lot of people have really strong, yet uneducated beliefs, on both sides of this issue. There is a lot of sensationalism in one direction, and alot of apathy in the other. But as long as we hold our government accountable for their efforts to research this, and diligently make sure our representatives work for action, we, as a race, might just be okay.
Tuesday, June 19, 2007 12:27:00 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00) 
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